Normally, when the synchros are bad you would expect a grinding noice as the gears are trying to mesh while running different speed. I have no grinding or crunching. Instead the gears are completely locked and there is no way to select them, more like trying to select first at too high speed because the speed mismatch between the input and output shafts is too great.
When my box is locked trying to select a gear causes a noticeable jolt/rocking motion in the car indicating that the input shaft is not completely free/the clutch is dragging. Do you get this rocking motion/jolt in the car as well?
Could the problem be clutch related? Or perhaps the pilot bearing in the end of the crank is bad/dragging when cold causing the input shaft to rotate enough to keep the gears from lining up and with the shaft? I did change brake fluid and bleed the brakes this season, could air have gotten into the clutch line causing it to drag when the air and fluid are cold? Another indicator of a dragging clutch/pilot bearing could be that it is sometimes notchy when pulling it out of a gear as well, a phase of the shifting where the synchros do no work at all, although it could just be me being lazy with the clutch pedal.
I still think you might be on to something, seems strange that this box is machined with such sensitive tolerances though. Today it is +7 and the box shifts from cold without problem. At +1 degree it is impossible to select a gear without rocking the car back and forth or waiting for it to warm up.
I'm considering buying a heating pad for the box to be able to heat it with battery power or grid power. Since it only takes a few degrees it should not need a lot of A/H to make a difference.
For those who want to learn how synchros work take a look at this nice video.
[video]www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXsRfbOiBhE[/video]